تأثیر همه‌گیری کرونا بر تعادل مالی و حجم تجارت خارجی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد سلامت، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

شیوع ویروس کرونا به طور جدی بر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی، مانند تراز مالی عمومی جهانی، نرخ بی‌کاری جهانی، نرخ تورم جهانی، حجم تجارت جهانی و نرخ رشد جهانی تأثیر منفی گذشته است. در ادبیات اقتصاد کلان، وجود پدیده‌های مذکور بعنوان شاخص‌های بی‌ثباتی اقتصادی قلمداد می‌شوند که بر تعادل مالی و حجم تجارت خارجی مؤثرند. هدف اصلی تحقیق حاضر، بررسی تأثیر همه‌گیری کرونا بر تعادل مالی و حجم تجارت خارجی در ایران می‌باشد. در این تحقیق، تأثیر همه‌گیری کرونا بر تعادل مالی و حجم تجارت خارجی در ایران در سال 1399 با استفاده از داده‌های سری زمانی و مدل خود توضیح‌برداری (‌VAR) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در این تحقیق از تجزیه و تحلیل رگرسیونی با استفاده از الگوی خود توضیح برداری (‌VAR) به روش هم جمعی یوهانسن – جوسیلیوس برای برازش و تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها به کمک نرم افزار ایویوز استفاده شده است. یافته‌ها تأثیرپذیری تعادل مالی و حجم تجارت خارجی از همه‌گیری کرونا را نشان می‌دهد و مورد تأیید قرار داده است. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که حجم تجارت ایران از بیماری کرونا و همچنین سیاست‌های تجاری و اقتصادی با خارج تأثیر زیادی می‌پذیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of the Corona Epidemic on the Financial Balance and Volume of Foreign Trade in Iran

نویسنده [English]

  • Leyla Gorji
PhD Student of Health Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The spread of the coronavirus has seriously affected economic activities such as the global general financial balance, the global unemployment rate, the global inflation rate, the volume of global trade, and the global growth rate. Which affects the financial balance and volume of foreign trade. The main goal of this research is to investigate the impact of the Corona epidemic on the financial balance and volume of foreign trade in Iran. In this research, the impact of the Corona epidemic on the financial balance and the volume of foreign trade in Iran in 2019 was investigated using time series data and a self-explanatory model (VAR). In this research, regression analysis using the vector self-explanatory model (VAR) using the Johansen-Jusilius co-aggregation method was used to fit and analyze the data using EViews software. The findings show and confirm the effectiveness of the financial balance and the volume of foreign trade from the Corona epidemic. Based on the results, showed that Iran's trade volume is greatly affected by the corona disease as well as foreign trade and economic policies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Corona
  • Coronavirus
  • National Balance
  • Foreign Trade
  • Economy
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